Pakistan In the Wake of U.S. Elections (2008)

One of the most followed US-elections, not only in Pakistan’s history, but the world history, the 2008 American elections arose hopes and fears around the globe. Political analysts were providing detailed analysis and synthesis of views and statements of the two rival candidates; who were in constant struggle against one another to convince the American public about their respective, economic, social, military, and most importantly foreign agendas. Mr. Barack Obama made history by being the first black President of the world’s oldest and best democracy. The Illinois senator defeated his Republican opponent in one of the most expensive and widely covered election campaigns in world history. John McCain, a republican, following in his party’s footsteps, followed a “realist” view, while the moderate Democrat, Obama, blended his views and would-be neo-liberalist foreign policy with a realistic touch. Republicans and Democrats are two faces of a mighty leviathan, with their respective policies being based on the international relations theories of “realism” and “neo-liberalism”. Although, a difference between the foreign policy of the parties is eminent, American foreign policy has been the global policy since its rise as a superpower. Which party has been better for Pakistan, is a matter of taking a quick glance in history. Pakistan has been the “most allied ally” for several times since the Republican President, Eisenhower first coined the term for the country in the fifties, and it still is the “most allied ally” under the Republican Bush regime. A front line state in the war on terror, President-Elect, Obama has many expectations from the democratic-government of Pakistan, and Islamabad has many hopes. The relations between India and Pakistan have touched a new low in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks and the role of the new US administration to ease tensions between the nuclear rivals is very clear. Building a strategic partnership with Pakistan has to be one of the most important steps that the new American government should look at, from supporting the country with military aid, to providing economic aid, a solid foundation for democratic institutions to function properly and a strong country to fight against the global menace of extremism and terrorism.

Although, American foreign policy is largely the outcome of institutions, such as the Congress and the House of Representatives, Presidents can, and usually do bring about a considerable change with them. The two biggest parties of America, Republicans and Democrats, base their respective policies on sound international relations’ theories of realism, neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism. With individuals joining the parties based on their own views of international politics, and coinciding with the party. Republicans have proven to be considerably different than their counterparts in terms of their economic as well as foreign policies; however, one thing has been common, and that is American foreign policy, has been the global policy, whether it is a Republican or Democrat government.

America’s interests are not only bound to areas around itself, but around the globe. As Richard N. Haas and Martin Indyk in their essay titled “Beyond Iraq” in the January/February 2009, issue of Foreign Affairs call it, the “energy policy is foreign policy”. Whether it is the Middle East, or the Far East, American interests are many, and far away; Pakistan is no exception. Pakistan enjoys a considerable geo-strategic position on the globe, and has been the center of attention for quite a number of times. With the ever-increasing threat of terrorism and extremism on its western border, to the coming US-administration, Pakistan has an ever-increasing role to play.

If one takes a glance in history, it does give one a view that Republicans have proven to be somewhat better for Pakistan, and mostly it was under the Democrats that Pakistan has faced sanctions. When in 1979 the Democrat President, Jimmy Carter laid sanctions on Pakistan for its nuclear program, the Republican Reagan gave gigantic aid to Pakistan that went into containing Russian invasion of Afghanistan. October 1990, under the “Pressler Amendment” the new Republican President, G.H.W Bush suspended all military and economic aid to Pakistan. Under the Democrat government of Bill Clinton, Pakistan faced many more sanctions for not being a democratic country to pursuing its nuclear program. When Al-Qaida struck the U.S., Pakistan’s support was vital, on the helm of affairs was the Republican President, G.W Bush; we were either with them, or with the terrorists. Not only did the economic, but military aid was resumed, and Pakistan was turned into a frontline ally state. Sanctions were waived year after year, and the country saw strengthening relations with America. Eight years from the day, America, in harmony, sang for “Change”. Will the new administration really bring about a drastic change, with respect to Pakistan-US relations? Obama sees the threat in Afghanistan, and has talked about a “responsible pull-out” from Iraq to increase forces in Afghanistan; will this demand a closer cooperation between Washington and Islamabad?

Terrorism is a global phenomenon. The greatest threat to Pakistan, currently, lies on its western border. To counter it, it not only needs to do more, but needs effective training and aid from its Western Allies, along with more Allied forces in Afghanistan. President-Elect Obama, realizes this, and has called for a pull-out of American forces from Iraq, for further deployment in Afghanistan. Obama’s Vice President, Joe Biden has called for more economic aid to Pakistan for strengthening its democratic foundations to successfully curb the menace of terrorism. Although, Obama has talked about sending US troops on Pakistani soil, “with or without the governments permission”, it is only if Pakistan “fails to do the needful”. War on terror is one of the main points of the next American government’s foreign policy, and to bring about a successful end to it. To do the “needful” Pakistan expects a sound coalition, based on equal footing, and America expects unconditional support.

President Zardari, and Prime Minister Gilani expect the new American government to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty, and to provide intelligence to Pakistani government so it can do the needful itself. President-elect Obama and his Vice President, Joe Biden, have called for increased aid to Pakistan, so it can effectively deal with the growing threat of terrorism and support its institutions. President-Elect Obama has also called for an effective solution of the Kashmir problem between India and Pakistan. This, according to the coming American government, will prove to be a strategic outcome of great importance, for Pakistan will be able to concentrate its energies on the western border when it has no threat on its eastern border. Joe Biden has earlier proposed a 15 billion dollar economic aid plan for Pakistan’s crippling economy, which Pakistan not only needs, but deserves. Democrats have usually opposed the idea of “unilateralism” and the policies of neo-con lobby of America, which has undermined the sovereignty of Pakistan. Will these changes in agendas, thoughts, and ideas bring about a change for Pakistan? Or due to increased tensions on the eastern border, Pakistan will have to concentrate on its long term rival, India? Should the Democrat government of America pursue the role of a mediator between the two volatile actors of the South Asian region? Obama’s policy has been very straight about it, yes.

In the wake of the recent terrorist activity in Mumbai, Pakistan-India relations have touched a new low. Inflammatory and irresponsible comments from Pakistan’s neighbour have created considerable amounts of tensions in Islamabad, and the focus has shifted from the War on Terror it was fighting. The new American government does not want that. For the very reason, Obama’s policy has been to bridge the gaps between the nuclear armed neighbours and as a result, secure the Allied forces supply lines, and enhance cooperation from Pakistan. With terrorism expanding like cancer cells from one country to another, Pakistan has a very difficult task to accomplish. The coming U.S. government has offered unconditional support for a serious effort in return from Pakistan; to achieve that, a strategic partnership between the two countries is a requirement.

A lot of Pakistani’s do not see in America a reliable ally. They feel betrayed, and left alone at times of their need, and used at times of America’s. For the very reason, America needs to build a long-term strategic partnership with its “most allied ally” for its unconditional support, and for the destruction of terrorism. Obama should make it clear that America is not against Islam or the spread of Islam, but the terrorist activities being taken under the name of Islam; that America is not on a crusade against Islam, but on a crusade against extremism and terrorism. Islamabad does not favourably look at the nuclear deal given to its long-time hostile neighbour and it does not appreciate, rather feels betrayed, when America opposes the nuclear cooperation between China and Pakistan. Where Pakistan needs to share intelligence and act as a responsible state, America needs to do the same. With the Democrat government about to take oath on the 20th of January, 2009, many in Islamabad hope to see the same. Pakistan looks for a sound strategic alliance with America, and does not look forward to be used as an instrument of change, rather a partner for change. Whether it was the Republican John McCain, or the now President-Elect Barack Obama, Pakistan, in the wake of U.S. elections is bound to undergo a change. What Pakistan looks for, and what Obama asks for, has been all over the media for the past months, how Washington and Islamabad will join hands to make a stronger commitment and a solid strategic partnership is a question of great importance, and can only be answered by time.

With the focus again shifting, this time from Iraq to Afghanistan, one thing is sure; Pakistan has a greater role to play in this part of the world. When policies will change in Washington; the neo-cons giving way to the neo-liberalists, they will affect policies in Islamabad. President-Elect Barack Obama will take office on the 20th of January, 2009, and the change that America needs, and the change that the world needs, may come. How far American policy will affect Pakistan is not a question, but how “will” American policy affect Pakistan-US relations is the question. The two faces of the mighty leviathan, Democrats and Republicans fought tooth and nail to get to the seat of power, and Democrats proved their mettle by winning the elections. As a superpower, it is but sure that the American interests engulf the whole world, its policy has to be the global policy, but the coming Democrat government sees the main point of focus in Afghanistan and not Iraq. It wants to strive to negotiate, unlike the Republican nominee, John McCain, who was against all negotiations with respect to Iran. Obama’s government wants to focus on Afghanistan, and curb terrorism from its roots, and for that, it looks to Pakistan’s cooperation. Obama wants to pursue the role of a mediator to come across a successful proposal for the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan. For the first time, it looks in years that America is looking sincerely towards issues of great importance, and to help resolve them; through politics and diplomacy, and not unilateralism. President-Elect Barack Obama with his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden, are a new energetic team on the helm of not only American, but world affairs. Pakistan, in today’s world is at a critical point, and the new government of America realizes that, it realizes the needs of Pakistan as an ally, and most importantly as a country with the given geo-strategic importance. Pakistan looks for a strategic partnership with America, and Obama calls for a change, the essence of the American foreign policy might remain the same, but the majority of Democrats will bring about a change, and that change is bound to affect countries that are critical to American interests. U.S. does not look forward to a disintegrated, weak ally; it looks forward to a strong committed country to fight terrorism; peace in the South Asian region, and democracy in Pakistan. With so much at stake, and many hopes on the verge, one can be only cynical if one believes things to turn a hundred and eighty degrees and a sudden change to happen. Much might be available for Islamabad, and much might be given to Washington, but yet, many pages might remain untouched and many rocks unturned.