The Next Cold War

Six years of brutality and human suffering of an unprecedented level resulted in the victory of the Allies against the Axis. While the world was still questioning and debating if 70 million lives along with the total destruction of infrastructure in the world were worth it, two new superpowers were emerging. In a way, World War II had set the stage for a new war - a war between the two leviathans of the time; the war which we now refer to as the Cold War. Forty six years of hostility ended with the demise of the Soviet Union and the world witnessed a decade of relatively peaceful times. America, in the changing world politics of the new millennium, saw its constantly weakening position. The rising dragon now sees itself as the next economic hegemon, and the emerging Russian bear is much obliged by the status of an energy superpower. While America still enjoys its status of a superpower in a unipolar world, tensions are rising under the surface. SCO is looked over as a rival to the ever-so-powerful NATO and a glimpse of a developing arms race can be seen in the current scenario. Hidden objectives to contain the growing economies of the world by the declining power, America, are failing and creating a feeling of discontent. The recent Georgian conflict may very well mark the beginning of the next Cold War. The world might witness a shift from unipolarity to bipolarity and finally settling to multipolarity. Regionalism and proxy wars might shift the balance of power in the world, forcing history to repeat itself with the commencement of the next Cold War.

To understand the future, one must take a glance in the past. When America replaced the British Empire to become the superpower, the rivalry started between USA and the Soviet Union. It was a rivalry that resulted in the Cold War. A war of ideologies, where the Stalinist Russia pursued a policy of expansionism, for the growth of Communism and America followed the “Truman Doctrine” for the rollback and containment of Communism. The world was divided into predominantly two blocs, the Capitalists, following the ‘Truman’ path and the Communists, hailing the Stalinist Russia. The Cold War went through many different phases, from straightforward hostility to years of relative peace, known as détente. When the Soviet Union blocked all passages to Berlin, we saw America rescuing people through airlifts. The Cold War witnessed three major proxy wars. The Korean War of 1950-1953 saw the two giants playing their cards of foreign soil. America’s invasion of Vietnam was a golden period for the USSR to supply aid in form of military to counter the Americans. The year 1962 saw the world at the brink of a Third World War, the Cuban Missile crisis was a low point for Russia, and so the hostility only multiplied. USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and here America saw the perfect time to settle the scores of its humiliating defeat in Vietnam. The battleground was Afghanistan, and the war was between the two superpowers. America used Pakistan as a training camp for raising militants to fight the Red Army. Bloody tribal revolts and persistent resistance in Afghanistan not only left the Red Army broken, beaten and scarred, it also had similar effects on the Soviet economy.

If the proxy wars hurt the Americans, it ruined the Soviets. Near 0% GPD growth rate forced the Soviet Union to put an end to the hostilities around the globe; it was simply not affordable anymore. 1991 marked the complete collapse of the Soviet economy and the Soviet Union, it also proved to be the end of the Cold War. The newly born Russian state completely shifted its focus from military to economic buildup; however, America reigned supreme in all aspects. There was no rival to the sole superpower left anymore and USA pursued its agenda of a New World Order.

1991-2001 – a decade of relative peace and tranquility defined the international politics. There was no rival to America, no one to challenge its global policies or question its actions. While Russia and China along with other countries of the world subdued to the only power, they also formed a policy of non-confrontation and focused on economic buildup. The Russians along with the Chinese, in the decade of peace, were only building their fractured economies; however, the Americans were experiencing unrivaled dominance till 2001, until tragedy struck.

September 11, 2001, for the first time in history, America was attacked on its very own soil. The country which was struck, and struck hard by a terrorist organization, reacted with all its might to teach a lesson to elements that defied American supremacy. Within a matter of days, Afghanistan was rubbled to the ground, clearly marking President Bush’s words;

“Either you are with us, or with the terrorists.”

It was this action that also raised questions about the unrivaled military prowess of America. By the time, Chinese economy along with the Russian economy had also made solid foundations. After the hunger for oil forced America to start “Operation Iraqi Freedom”, voices found their way out. America was in two wars now, and clearly, not very comfortable. When Russia threatened to VETO the Iraqi invasion in the United Nations’ Security Council, America simply bypassed it, in the name of preemptive strike. The weak position of America was also made clear when the former Cold War opponent embraced Iran in total opposition to America. It was not only about Russia, but the Chinese dragon was also rising.

Staying out of world politics and focusing only on a stronger economy, China is seen by America as a major threat to its global domination. According to the CIA fact book, Chinese GDP growth rate was the highest in 2007, sitting at an overwhelming average of 11.4%. With an inflation rate of merely 4.8%, the Chinese common man is growing rapidly along with his country. Currently, second only to the American economy, China is expected to overtake the current superpower in a matter of 10-15 years. One of the outcomes of these developments is a hazy silhouette of the next Cold War in the near future.

“What has brought Russia back in the world politics?” was a question posed by a journalist to former President now Prime Minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin; to which the former KGB officer replied;

“Thanks to a hundred dollars a barrel.”

With Russia emerging stronger than ever before, the atmosphere of the first Cold War is engulfing the world. According to an article published in Asia Times, 2007, The US is “focusing on Russia”. US-Russian relations have nearly reached a new low level after the Georgian crisis and America sees in Russia a strategic “threat”. With an estimated 16,000 nuclear warheads, Russia’s nuclear stockpile far exceeds the American arsenals. The deployment of Russia’s most advanced air defense system, the S-400 and an upgrade to its nuclear capabilities to defy American anti-ballistic missiles, Russia is clearly negating the uni-polar world. With the successful deployment of the world’s most advanced nuclear missile, Topol-M; Russia has managed to raise hair inside American military circles. A powerful military accompanied with a booming economy, Russians are clearly on the chessboard of international politics.
8.1% of GDP growth rate, according to CIA fact book, has strengthened the Russian economy and brought it back on its feet. Being the largest country in the world, the former Soviet Union is hailed as the world’s energy superpower. With oil exports of over 5 million bbl/day, the energy superpower is unrivaled and unmatched in its mineral reserves. Majority of the Europe, dependent on Russian oil and gas has found itself under heavy influence of the mighty leviathan. America is trying its best for maintaining its influence on the smaller states; other Great Powers have started to counter it, because of which tensions are now rising under the surface.

Where America is putting hefty amounts of money in the Central Asian States to gain their favor, Russia and China have also started to put billions of dollars in the mineral rich states of Central Asia. NATO of the East, as it is referred to is one of the most grave concerns of our superpower.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the brainchild of China has become a formidable force to be reckoned with only after seven years of its inception. Two nuclear powers, one of them a former superpower, and one a future economic giant along with the heartland states of the world, full of natural resources have made SCO a direct rival of NATO. While America is trying hard to ‘detach’ Central Asian States from the SCO platform, its attempts are failing. Sino-Russian fraternity has touched new heights and America is no longer looked up to or at with an intimidated attitude.

With all these developments, the ground for future hostility and a Cold War do not seem to be far from sight. An arms race has begun again between the former rivals. When America tested the world’s most powerful non-nuclear bomb and named it the “mother of all bombs”, Russia broke the record with their “father of all bombs”. Tu-160 strategic air force bombers accompanied with Project-941, nuclear submarines, have given a strong footing to Russia. When America deployed its anti-ballistic missiles, Russia deployed Topol-Ms; defying the American defense systems. All of these developments prove to the world that the seed of discontent had always been there, a new Cold War is in its embryonic stages. Besides the military buildup, economic giants like China are also in a state of discontent with the current superpower. Accusations of “dumping” put by the United States have raised voices in China questioning the motives of America. Rising tensions under the surface came out to be glaringly visible after August 07, 2008.

When Georgia tried to capture two of its breakaway provinces, where Russian peacekeepers managed peace, by force; Russia, for the first time retaliated with considerable force. Russian tanks rolled in the heart of Georgia, and a war started. While acting as the superpower, America condemned Russian assault, Russia barely noticed. American Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice assured American support to Georgia by saying;

“The international community respects the national integrity of Georgia.”

Not bowing to American pressure, the Prime Minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in total defiance uttered the following words;

”The international community can forget about the national integrity of Georgia.”

The five point policy that will guide the future Russian foreign policy is the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that any country has defied the unipolarity in the world. If today the world is not in the state of a cold war, it clearly is under the shadows of the next Cold War. As said before, to understand the future, a cursory glance in the past is must. With the current scenario and the past before us, it becomes easy to predict the future.

According to the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, a unipolar world is no longer acceptable to Russia, or the other major powers. A declining America with a rising Russia can bring back the bipolarity of the first Cold War era, but a rising China predicts a multipolar world. Formation of coalitions has resulted in regionalism. SCO, NATO, ASEAN, WTO and OICD have completely shifted the policies of countries. Instead of looking towards a country, States have adopted the policy of regionalism; of coalitions within regions; therefore, in a way, creating multiple poles of power within the world, in constant battle with each other.

Proxy wars, the sorts of which were witnessed in the first Cold War are also a possibility if the current scene heads towards the next Cold War; indirect wars on foreign soils to weaken each other is the only method of fighting in a Cold War.
The world is witnessing a global shift in the balance of power between the major powers of the world, an immense pressure on the superpower and the shadows of the next cold war. Economies and voices rising, against the once formidable victor of the first Cold War has put it in a fragile position. If history repeats itself and if every rise has a fall, American rise may only fall after the next Cold War; the vestige of which lies just in the corner.