Sunday, June 28, 2009

A geo-strategic shift?

Since the earlier days of Liaqat Ali Khan, Pakistan has looked towards the prospering west for support on all grounds. However, it has paid heavily for the blind-love of the Western democracies in the form of sanctions from the 70s, to an exodus of Afghan refugees in the 80s that continued in the 90s and continues to this day, and more recently, in the form of domestic instability that has wrecked havoc around the cities of this, once peaceful nation. Road-side killings, suicide bombers, and the largest internal displacement of people in the history of mankind, combined with an eroding sovereignty is not something that we planned for. Is it fair to blame the past for the future? Should we agonize ourselves that had we aligned ourselves to powers that in addition to being sincere with their allies were also closer in proximity to Pakistan, we might have been in a better condition today? The Iron-Curtain fell in 1991, but for Pakistan, as the Soviet Union had been, Russia too, remained a mystery, until perhaps, recently. If we, as any economist would put it, let the bygones be bygones, we see a future.., a future that is promising, a future that does not have a crumbling Pakistan with charlatans occupying the highest echelons of the government, and a future that might conclude the geo-strategic shift of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards the Russian bear from the not-so-soaring American Eagle, that has been broken, beaten, and scarred by its extravagant adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since the late 2008, there has been an inclination towards Russia, from as minor steps as providing Russian news on local television, to as important as state visits. More recently, Pakistani Army Chief, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani paid an official visit to his counter-part in Moscow. They did not only discuss the need of establishing a better collaboration between the two countries, but discussed a military cooperation and the desire of a “strategic partnership”; something, which Pakistan has desired in the tactical and sporadic relationship with Washington until now. So what do we do? Where are we heading? Will there be a geo-strategic shift? Perhaps, a powerful regional alliance, or a demonizing Western backed war on terrorism, which might lead to ever-deteriorating social, economic, and political condition of the South-Asian region? Fareed Zakria once suggested that, “America has tended to make its strategic missteps by exaggerating dangers”, we on the other hand; however, have tended to make our strategic missteps by confirming those exaggerated dangers in the form of pursuing the Holy Grail of democracy and fighting terrorism with guns and tanks. It is true, as Madge Micheels Cyrus said, “Nonviolence doesn't always work - but violence never does.” It is perhaps about time that Pakistan focuses on regional alliances, as much as, if not more than it focuses on the importance of its partnership with the declining super-power of our day. It is also true, that keeping America at an arm’s length is not realistic, nor desirable. What Pakistan needs today, is austerity in its domestic issues, a top-down policy instead of a bottom-up is the way it works. And a foreign policy that understands the importance of regional powers as much as it does of the global power. Perhaps, the first step has been taken, and maybe in the coming few years, with the prospering future of Russia and China, Pakistan might be a strategic partner of the two, like today, Israel is of America, something we could never become.

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